The South-West monsoon period (June to September), when we receive over 80 per cent of annual rainfall, is not only important for our food and water security, but also for the work and income security of over 60 per cent of our population engaged in farming. The health and survival of nearly 500 million farm animals, including cows, buffaloes, goats, and sheep, depend upon the availability of water for direct consumption and for the production of feed and fodder. In addition, power generation and the recharge of the aquifer are affected.

A water emergency currently prevails in several parts of the country. Climate models predict that sub-regional variation in more extreme rainfall patterns, resulting in drought or floods, may increase. Experience indicates that some of the areas now experiencing drought may face floods in August-September, resulting in further damage to crops. Heavy rainfall and floods in August-September will however help to fill up tanks and reservoirs and augment ground water supply, which will be very helpful for raising good rabi season crops.

So far, Punjab, Haryana, and Western Uttar Pradesh have had scanty rainfall. This is the region that supplies most of the wheat and rice for the Public Distribution System. Even if rains come now, the yield will be reduced since crop duration and yield are related. In the case of monsoon rains, it is not only total rainfall that is significant. More importantly, the distribution of the rainfall will determine the health of the crop. This is an important problem we face in our country, where most of the rainfall occurs in about 100 hours in a year. The loss occurring from a skewed distribution of rainfall is particularly high in soils with limited water-holding capacity.

Another aspect of climate change is the possibility of a rise in sea level and more frequent occurrence of coastal storms and cyclones. We should take anticipatory action to protect both the ecological security of coastal areas and the livelihood security of coastal communities. Preparing for climate change therefore should become an integral part of the planning process for sustainable food, water, and livelihood security.

What should we do immediately?

While the heartland of the green revolution is experiencing severe meteorological distress, other parts of our country are experiencing a reasonably satisfactory monsoon. This is particularly true of Eastern India, which comprises Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Orissa, West Bengal, and Assam. Fortunately, the whole of Eastern India as well as parts of peninsular India have a very large untapped yield reservoir even with currently available technologies.

Since there is enough soil moisture for raising good crops in the Southern and Eastern parts of the country, we should launch a Compensatory Production Programme in this region. Such a programme should involve the intensification of extension efforts as well as supplying an additional dose of nutrients free of cost. It is important that the needed macro- and micronutrients are supplied in the form of top dressing of standing crops. The addition of 20 to 25 kg of nitrogen per hectare will help to increase yield by a tonne. The loss in yield sustained in the North-West part of the country can to some extent be made good by increasing production in those parts of the country that are experiencing near normal monsoon conditions.

If such a compensatory programme can be initiated immediately by mobilising the requisite nutrients, it will be prudent to request the faculty and scholars of agricultural and animal science universities in the region to stop classroom education for a month, and go to villages to work with farm families in improving water and nutrient use efficiency and in controlling pests and diseases. I am confident that if the farm universities come to the rescue of the national food and livelihood security system by working with farm women and men for a month, they will also gain by learning more about the field problems than they will be able to do in classrooms. With a National Food Security Act on the anvil, it will be prudent to develop procedures that can help us to optimise production in the most favourable areas from the point of view of moisture availability.

Over 60 per cent of India’s cultivated area is rain-fed. Considerable research has been carried out on increasing the yield and stability of crops in dry farming areas. The gap between potential and actual yields in these areas is as high as 200 to 300 per cent. There is need for launching a ‘bridge the yield gap movement’ in all rain-fed areas through attention to varietal choice, soil fertility, water conservation and management, and plant protection. Fortunately, the Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana involving an outlay of Rs.25,000 crore provides an opportunity to State governments to help farmers increase the production of dry land crops. Pulses and oilseeds are mostly cultivated with rainfall and we should increase the production of these crops to minimise imports and enhance the income of farmers.

Further, there is a need for a decentralised grid of warehouses and grain storage structures based on recent technologies. This will help prevent both distress sale and panic purchase. The production of vegetables and fruits is going up and it is important to strengthen facilities for the safe storage of perishable commodities.

Enhancing coping capacity

In the Dr. Rajendra Prasad Memorial lecture I delivered under the auspices of Indian Society of Agricultural Statistics in 1972 on the question “Can we face severe drought again without food imports?” I stressed that just as grain reserves are important for food security, seed reserves are important for crop security. This is because the implementation of contingency plans involving the cultivation of crops based on the rainfall pattern will be possible only if the seeds of the alternative crops are available. Later in 1973, delivering the Sardar Patel Memorial Lectures over the All India Radio, I stressed the need for preparing drought, flood, and good weather Codes for each agro-climatic region in India. The aim of such Codes, detailing the anticipatory measures that should be undertaken, is to minimise the adverse impact of aberrant weather and to maximise the benefits of good monsoons. Such Action Codes should become integral parts of our preparedness for insulating, to the maximum extent possible, our food, water, and livelihood security systems from the impact of global warming.

Message from L’Aquila

An agreement was reached at the recent G8 summit, attended by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, that greenhouse gas emissions should be reduced by 40 per cent by 2020, so as to limit the maximum rise in temperature to 2{+0}C over the pre-industrial period. Even a 2-degree rise in mean temperature will have serious implications for our agriculture. Two decades ago, Dr. S.K. Sinha and I showed that a 1{+0}C rise in night temperature in the Punjab and Haryana would reduce the duration of the wheat crop by about a week. This, in turn, would reduce yield by 4 to 5 quintals per hectare, resulting in a considerable loss to wheat production in that region.

In contrast to industrialised countries, the average size of our farms is hardly 1 hectare. The smaller the farm, the greater the need for marketable surplus to get cash income. Therefore, the implications of reduced yield must be considered not just in terms of production of wheat or rice or other crops, but also in terms of the income of the small farmer. To keep farmers in farming, there will be need for proactive action to enlarge rural livelihood opportunities in the non-farm sector.

At the same time, we must intensify research on assembling genetic material for a warming India. Novel genetic combinations for tolerance to higher temperature and moisture stress can be developed through the tools of recombinant DNA technology. Similarly, flood and salinity tolerant strains of major crops can be developed. Farming has to become knowledge- and technology-intensive if we are to overcome successfully the emerging challenges. This year provides opportunities for initiating a well-planned monsoon management strategy based on the best available scientific tools in rural India.

The M. S. Swaminathan Research Foundation (MSSRF) is developing training modules to build a cadre of climate risk managers (at least one woman and one male climate risk manager in every panchayat), well versed in the science and art of monsoon management based on the integration of traditional wisdom with frontier technologies. A national cadre of grassroot climate risk managers will help trigger the proactive action needed to minimise human suffering and ensure both food and drinking water security in the emerging era of global warming and climate change.

(Professor M.S. Swaminathan is chairman of the MSSRF, Chennai and a Member of the Rajya Sabha.)