Along with it other studies too foretell a similar scenario. They list the State as the most vulnerable in the country evidenced by the facts like, during the last decade, the maximum temperature registered a 4.4-6.6 per cent rise and the minimum temperature registered a 3.5 per cent decline. And, the greenhouse gas emissions in the State are clocking an over 30 per cent growth per annum. In Bhubaneswar, a recent report says, the greenhouse gases (GHGs) were up by 25 per cent for the period 2004-06.

A Washington-based Institute of Policy Studies says, the total greenhouse gas emissions in the State will account 10 per cent of total emissions in the world by 2010. Also, the global warming symptoms like drought, heavy precipitation, heat waves, tropical cyclones and longer dry periods are in evidence in Orissa. Fifty per cent worst floods seen in deficient rainfall years, 20 per cent of the years since last two decades witnessed deficient rainfall, 29 calamities in 41 years. The western and southern regions records a continuous fall in aggregate precipitation level, the coastal areas like Balasore and Puri show a rise in precipitation level.

IPCC says, "The warmer temperature will result in greater evaporation resulting in a warmer atmosphere leading to more rain, but the dry and hotter areas will lose more moisture exacerbating droughts and desertification processes." In Orissa, this proves true as the dry regions, for instance, Bolangir and Nuapada receives only 1,000 mm of rainfall now, a level termed as critical. Also, Rayagada and Jharsugada are witnessing gradual desertification.

A study warned that in the eastern region, including Orissa, the GHGs will rise steadily due to high SOC (soil organic carbon) in the soil, and, the fast pace industrialisation and subsequent demand on thermal power will simply add fuel to the fire. It further states that the rice yield/ha in the State to see a 17 per cent decline by 2030.

A study by IIT-Bombay says that the eastern coast will be more vulnerable to the climate change than the western coast. And Orissa stands first among the vulnerable. The Indian Ocean will rise by 25-40 cm by 2050, warns an IIT-Delhi study and the State is set to loose its large stretches of coastline to the sea. Besides this, the increasing salinity of acquifers will stare at the State acutely. A British-Government commissioned study warns of enhanced flooding in the rivers of Mahanadi and Brahamani. More tropical cyclones are set to batter the State due to climate change.

So, floods and cyclones in coastal areas and droughts in the dry areas will be the reality 20 years hence. The people of the State, especially the marginal sections, are to suffer acutely, as 80 per cent here sustains their livelihood from nature and 47 per cent are below poverty line. Also, 60 per cent agri-lands are owned by small and marginal farmers.

The IIT-Bombay study listed Kendrapara and Jagatsinghpur districts as most vulnerable to climate change effects. Another international study estimated that one-metre rise in sea level in Balasore could have a staggering Rs 360 cr economic impact. And the State urgently needs over 2000 dykes and sea walls to prevent over 70,000 hectares of prime agro-lands from sea ingress.

However, all is not that gloom and doom, provided the Government initiate corrective measures right now. Although, Eystein Jansen, International climate researcher, opines that even if CO2 (Carbon dioxide) was cut by 50 per cent now, the effect then would be noticed only in 2030, but the moot point is Government is quite oblivious of the emerging environmental catastrophe and till to-date no thought has been spared to curb the ever-rising GHGs.

In order to curb the emission of methane (CH4) from rice fields, a study stressed the urgent need of water management and nitrogen management. It found that intermittent flooding of rice fields lead to rise in emission of oxides of nitrogen but a steep reduction in methane and carbon dioxide. IPCC advocates a change in tillage practices to curb the methane emission from the rice fields. And for industries that accounts 40 per cent of CO2 emission, IPCC counsels to opt for the combined heat and power co-generation and utilisation of waste heat to cut the energy requirements. The need of the hour is the State should immediately form an expert panel and adopt time-bound cut in GHGs to mitigate its baneful effect on the society, economy and environment.