Spend now, on adapting to the consequences of climate change, or else you will have to pay out much more in the future — that was the message Sir Nicholas Stern gave Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Wednesday.
Author of Stern Review, a widely talked-about report, which details how massive amounts of revenue could be lost due to climate change, Sir Stern told Dr Singh that global warming can adversely impact the economy of a country like India.
Sir Stern, former chief economist in the World Bank, has conveyed the same message to the deputy chairperson of the Planning Commission Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Union Power Minister S K Shinde and officials from the Union Environment and Forest Ministry.
The objective is to sensitise the Government to start spending on climate change adaptation and mitigation approaches in the 11th Plan.
Dr Jayshree Roy, an economist from Jadavpur University in Kolkata, who helped Sir Stern in producing the report, said: “If there is a temperature rise between two to five degrees Celsius in India without any adaptation measures — like introduction of heat-tolerant crops — it would result in 9-25 per cent loss in agriculture revenue.”
Rising sea level
Similarly, the rising sea level would put economic pressure on India because if vast areas of a low-lying country like Bangladesh are submerged, people would migrate to India, said Dr Stern addressing the industry here on Wednesday.
Another fallout that Dr Roy warns about is increased disease burden, which is visible now as mosquito-borne diseases are increasing in the hills where those diseases were unheard of. The number of extreme events like flood and drought too are on the rise.
The Stern review that has created a stir in the Europe and USA was released on October 30. The tone of the review has prompted many European nations to initiate actions towards increasing their budget towards adaptation and mitigation of climate change.
Using results from formal economic models, the review estimates that if the governments don’t act, the overall costs and risks of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least five per cent of global GDP each year. If a wider range of risks and impacts is taken into account, the estimates of damage could rise to 20 per cent of GDP or more. In contrast, the costs of action — reducing greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the worst impacts of climate change — can be limited to around one per cent of global GDP each year, says the review.
“The review has increased policy makers’ awareness about climate change,” said Union Environment Secretary Pradipto Ghosh.
