In 2015, 98% of all the new registered light vehicles in the EU have been exclusively driven by conventional combustion engines. PwC calculations expect that, by 2020, their share will decrease to 87%; by 2025, they will make up less than 50%; and by 2030, combustion engines will only account for a relatively low 16%. On the other hand, electric vehicles, currently 0.4%, could potentially surpass the market share of conventional combustion engines by 2028 for the first time and are expected to increase to 37% by 2030. Mild, full and plug-in hybrids are regarded as a transitory technology and play an important role for the auto industry to achieve emission targets. By 2030, they are likely to account for 47%.

Mild-hybrids drive e-evolution

The breakthrough of alternative drive technologies will take place in two stages. Initially, smaller technological advancements can be expected, such as increasing adoption of the 48-voltage electric system, allowing the use of cost-efficient hybrid technologies. This technology enables the efficient usage of electric motors up to 15 kW performance as mild hybrid. The electric motor serves as a starter providing additional torque. It can also serve as a generator to recuperate energy while braking. In both cases, the electric motor helps reduce fuel consumption. Currently, one out of every 100 new cars sold in the EU is a mild hybrid. By 2020, this is expected to increase to 8%. Another five years later, its share could peak at 25%, before declining, as full electric vehicles are assumed to grow.